Business Analysis Portfolio  ·  F1  ·  2004–2024

What Wins
F1 Championships?

A structured data analysis of 21 seasons of Formula 1 racing — examining car superiority, reliability, qualifying pace, pit strategy, and circuit DNA to answer one central question.

86% Car–Driver title match rate
5 Seasons where DNFs flipped the title
1.3 Avg champion DNFs per season
2.2s Pit stop gap: best vs worst team
4 Circuit archetypes analysed
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F1 Color Language
Fastest Lap/Sector
Personal Best
No Improvement
Soft Tyre
Medium Tyre
Hard Tyre
Question 1  ·  Red Bull Era Context

Does the best car always win the title?

Comparing the constructor champion and driver champion team each season from 2004–2024. When they match, the car dominated. When they diverge, something extraordinary happened.

Q1 — Driver and Constructor Champions by Season
Each bar = one season. Green = driver champion and constructor champion from the same team. Red = different teams won each title.
Q1 — The 3 Exception Seasons
The 3 seasons where driver and constructor champions came from different teams — bars colored by official team colors.
Finding: The best car wins the title 86% of the time

In 18 of 21 seasons, the drivers' champion and constructors' champion came from the same team, confirming that car performance is the dominant championship factor. The three exceptions are the most dramatic seasons in modern F1:

Takeaway: If you have the best car, you almost certainly win. The three exceptions are not statistical noise — they are the moments where driver brilliance and race-day execution overrode machinery.

Question 2  ·  Ferrari Red = Retirement Risk

How much do DNFs cost championships?

Analysing retirements per season for champions and runners-up, estimating points lost, and identifying seasons where reliability was the single decisive variable.

Q2 — DNF Analysis per Season
Top: DNF count per season (purple = champion, red = runner-up). Bottom: estimated points lost vs the actual championship margin (silver bar).
Q2 — Championship-Decisive DNF Seasons
Yellow = runner-up's net DNF points advantage. Silver = actual margin. Where yellow exceeds silver, reliability alone could have reversed the title.
1.3Avg champion DNFs / season
1.9Avg runner-up DNFs / season
5Seasons where DNFs were decisive
2012Starkest case — Alonso lost by 3 pts
Finding: DNFs were championship-decisive in multiple close seasons

Using actual retirement data from status.csv and estimated points lost per DNF, the analysis flagged seasons where the runner-up's estimated lost points exceeded the final championship margin. The standout cases:

Takeaway: Reliability is a silent championship weapon. In close seasons, the driver who finishes more races wins.

Question 3  ·  Purple = Fastest, Green = Improvement

Is qualifying speed or race pace more predictive?

Comparing pole positions, wins, average grid position, and average race finish for every championship-winning season to identify whether Saturday or Sunday performance defines a title.

Q3 — Avg Grid vs Avg Finish
Each point = one champion season. Points below the diagonal line improved their grid position on race day — race pace outperformed qualifying.
Q3 — Poles vs Wins
Poles vs race wins per championship season. Champions with more wins than poles converted race pace into points more efficiently than qualifying pace suggested.
Q3 — Positions Gained Grid to Finish
Average positions gained from grid to final classification across all races in a championship season. Positive bars (teal) = champion consistently moved forward on Sundays.
Finding: Race pace and execution matter more than Saturday qualifying

Champions averaged 8.3 poles but won significantly more races than their pole count alone would predict. Key examples:

Takeaway: Pole position helps but doesn't define champions. Converting race opportunities — especially from P3–P5 on the grid — is what separates title winners.

Question 4  ·  McLaren Orange = Fastest Hands Win

Do pit stop strategies decide races?

Analysing average pit stop durations by team across 2015–2024, removing outliers over 60 seconds, and tracking how the major constructors have evolved their crew performance across a decade.

Q4 — Average Pit Stop by Constructor
Average total pit lane transit time (entry + stationary + exit) per constructor, 2015–2024. All teams on the same measurement basis.
Q4 — Pit Performance Trend
Year-on-year pit performance evolution for the four major constructors. Downward = improving crew efficiency.
Finding: Pit stop efficiency compounds into a ~97-second seasonal advantage

The gap between the fastest and slowest top teams is approximately 2.2 seconds per stop. Across 22 races × 2 stops per race, that compounds to roughly 97 seconds of cumulative pit time advantage across the season.

Takeaway: Pit stop speed is not a substitute for car pace — it amplifies it. The best teams are fast everywhere.

Question 5  ·  Alpine Blue = Circuit Fingerprint

Circuit DNA — which teams dominate which tracks?

Classifying circuits into four archetypes — Street, High Speed, Slow/Technical, and Mixed — and mapping race wins by constructor to reveal each team's performance fingerprint.

Q5 — Circuit DNA Heatmap
Race wins by constructor × circuit type (2010–2024). Colour intensity indicates win concentration — darker = stronger domain.
Q5 — Win Profile by Team
Total race wins per constructor stacked by circuit type. Shows each team's absolute volume of wins broken down by track character.
Q5 — Normalised Circuit Mix
Normalised win percentage per team by circuit type — reveals each constructor's relative comfort zone regardless of total win count.
Finding: Every constructor has a circuit comfort zone shaped by its car philosophy

Classifying 14 years of race results by circuit archetype reveals distinct performance fingerprints for each major constructor:

Takeaway: Circuit DNA is a sleeper factor in championship analysis. With 52% of races on mixed-character tracks, teams that can adapt their setup across archetypes — rather than optimise for one — consistently outscore specialist rivals over a full season.

Of the 77 circuits in the dataset, 53 have been retired from the F1 calendar. The table below shows the 23 currently active circuits on the 2026 calendar, classified by track archetype.
🏙️ Street  (5 circuits)
  • Circuit de MonacoMonte-Carlo
  • Marina Bay Street CircuitSingapore
  • Jeddah Corniche CircuitSaudi Arabia
  • Baku City CircuitAzerbaijan
  • Las Vegas Strip Street CircuitUSA
🚀 High-Speed  (4 circuits)
  • Spa-FrancorchampsBelgium
  • Silverstone CircuitGreat Britain
  • Autodromo Nazionale di MonzaItaly
  • Red Bull RingAustria
🔀 Mixed  (12 circuits)
  • Albert ParkMelbourne, Australia
  • Bahrain International CircuitSakhir
  • Circuit de Barcelona-CatalunyaBarcelona, Spain
  • Circuit Gilles VilleneuveMontréal, Canada
  • InterlagosSão Paulo, Brazil
  • Shanghai International CircuitChina
  • Circuit of the AmericasAustin, USA
  • Miami International AutodromeMiami, USA
  • Suzuka CircuitJapan
  • Yas Marina CircuitAbu Dhabi
  • Autódromo Hermanos RodríguezMexico City
  • Losail International CircuitQatar
🔧 Technical / Slow  (2 circuits)
  • HungaroringBudapest, Hungary
  • Circuit Park ZandvoortNetherlands
Archetype Circuits % of Calendar Key Characteristic
🏙️ Street 5 22% Temporary city roads, barriers, low grip, no run-off
🚀 High-Speed 4 17% Long straights, high-speed corners, top-speed and aero efficiency critical
🔀 Mixed 12 52% Blend of slow and fast sections — rewards all-round car balance
🔧 Technical/Slow 2 9% Tight, low-speed layouts — mechanical grip and precision over raw pace
Methodology

Data sources & analytical approach

All data sourced from the Ergast Motor Racing Database via Kaggle, covering 2004–2024 (21 seasons). Analysis built in Python using pandas, matplotlib, and seaborn. Excel workbook auto-generated with openpyxl.

Team Color Reference
Ferrari #ED1131
McLaren #F47600
Red Bull #4781D7
Mercedes #00D7B6
Aston Martin #229971
Alpine #00A1E8
Williams #1868DB
RB #6C98FF
Haas #9C9FA2
Kick Sauber #01C00E
Question Primary Dataset(s) Metric Used Known Limitation
Q1 — Car wins driver_standings.csv · constructor_standings.csv Final-race standings position by year Does not capture mid-season car development trajectory
Q2 — DNF cost results.csv · status.csv · driver_standings.csv Estimated pts lost = avg finish position × points scale DNFs often occur from strong grid positions — conservative estimate
Q3 — Quali vs race qualifying.csv · results.csv Grid pos, finish pos, positions gained per race Qualifying data coverage is variable before 2010
Q4 — Pit stops pit_stops.csv Avg total pit lane transit time (outliers >60s removed) Pit stop data only available from 2011 onwards
Q5 — Circuit DNA results.csv · circuits.csv · races.csv Race wins by circuit type classification Circuit classification uses heuristic rules — not official FIA categories

Conclusion

Formula 1 championships are decided by a hierarchy of factors, not a single variable. Car performance is the dominant force — an 86% match rate between driver and constructor champions confirms that machinery governs the sport at the macro level. But reliability is the second pillar: champions averaged 1.3 DNFs per season versus 1.9 for runners-up, and in 5 of 21 seasons, that gap alone was large enough to be mathematically championship-decisive. Qualifying pace matters less than popular narrative suggests — champions like Hamilton in 2019 and Alonso in 2013 demonstrated that race execution can dramatically outperform what Saturday results predicted. Pit stop execution provides a compounding marginal advantage of approximately 97 seconds across a full season, which amplifies existing car pace rather than substituting for it. And circuit DNA reveals that no team wins everywhere equally — every car carries a performance fingerprint shaped by its mechanical and aerodynamic philosophy, making the calendar structure a silent championship variable. The clearest conclusion from 21 seasons of data: to win a Formula 1 World Championship, you need the fastest car, the fewest failures, and a driver who can extract more from the race than the car alone would suggest is possible.

Appendix  ·  F1 Vocabulary

F1 Glossary — Key Terms Explained

Formula 1 uses a specific vocabulary that can be unfamiliar to new viewers. These definitions cover every term used in this analysis.

DNF Did Not Finish

When a driver is forced to retire from a race before the end — due to a mechanical failure, crash, or other incident. A DNF scores zero points, regardless of how well the driver was running before the retirement. In a close championship, a single DNF can be the difference between winning and losing a title.

Constructor F1 Team / Car Manufacturer

A constructor is a team that designs and builds its own racing car. In F1, each constructor enters two cars and two drivers per race. Teams compete in two separate championships: the World Drivers' Championship (WDC) for individual drivers, and the World Constructors' Championship (WCC) for the team. Examples: Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes.

Pit Stop Tyre Change / Service Stop

A pit stop is when a car enters the pit lane during a race for a tyre change and sometimes minor repairs. A typical stop lasts 2–3 seconds for the wheel change itself, but the full pit lane transit (entry, stop, exit) adds roughly 20–30 seconds. A fast pit crew can gain or lose positions relative to rivals who stop at the same time.

Pole Position P1 on the Starting Grid

The driver who sets the fastest time in qualifying earns pole position — they start the race from the very front of the grid. Starting from pole is a significant advantage, as it avoids traffic and allows the driver to control their own pace from lap one. Since 2021, pole position also awards 1 bonus championship point.

Qualifying Saturday Session — Grid Order

Qualifying takes place on Saturday and determines the starting order (grid) for Sunday's race. In the modern format (Q1/Q2/Q3), the slowest drivers are eliminated in each segment until the top 10 shootout. The driver who sets the fastest overall lap time takes pole position. Qualifying pace ≠ race pace — a fast Saturday does not guarantee a strong Sunday finish.

Safety Car Neutralisation Period

When there is a crash or dangerous debris on track, the Safety Car — a road car driven by a professional — leads the field at reduced speed while marshals clear the circuit. All cars must line up behind the Safety Car and cannot overtake. Safety Car periods often trigger strategic pit stop windows, as teams can change tyres with minimal time loss. The controversial 2021 Abu Dhabi finale involved a disputed Safety Car restart procedure that handed Verstappen the title over Hamilton.

WDC & WCC World Drivers' & Constructors' Championships

F1 awards two world titles every season. The WDC (World Drivers' Championship) goes to the individual driver with the most points. The WCC (World Constructors' Championship) goes to the team whose two cars collectively score the most points. A team can win one without the other — as happened in 2008, 2021, and 2024.

Undercut / Overcut Pit Strategy Moves

An undercut is when a driver pits before a rival, takes on fresh tyres, and uses the resulting pace advantage to emerge ahead in traffic. An overcut is the reverse — staying out longer on worn tyres while the rival pits, hoping track position and tyre temperature hold long enough to stay ahead. Both are core strategic weapons used by teams to gain positions without on-track overtaking.

Points System How Championship Points Are Awarded

Points are awarded to the top 10 finishers in each race: 1st = 25 pts, 2nd = 18, 3rd = 15, 4th = 12, 5th = 10, 6th = 8, 7th = 6, 8th = 4, 9th = 2, 10th = 1. An additional 1 point is awarded for the fastest lap (if the driver finishes in the top 10). A DNF scores 0. Points accumulate across all races to determine the final championship standings.

Grid Race Starting Order

The grid is the starting formation for the race, arranged in two columns on the start/finish straight. Positions on the grid are determined by qualifying results. Starting further back means fighting through traffic, increasing the risk of early incidents and making tyre strategy more complicated. Average grid position is used in this analysis as a proxy for a driver's qualifying pace across a full championship season.

Lap Time Time to Complete One Circuit Lap

A lap time is the duration it takes a car to complete one full circuit of the track. In F1 broadcast timing, laps are color-coded: purple = overall fastest lap of the session, green = the driver's own personal best lap, yellow = no improvement on previous lap. This color language is used throughout this analysis.

Circuit Archetypes Track Classification Used in This Analysis

For Q5, circuits are grouped into four categories based on the 2026 active calendar: Street — temporary city roads with barriers and low grip (Monaco, Singapore, Baku, Las Vegas, Jeddah); High-Speed — tracks with long fast corners where top speed and aero efficiency dominate (Spa, Silverstone, Monza, Red Bull Ring); Technical/Slow — tight, low-speed layouts where mechanical grip and precision matter most (Hungaroring, Zandvoort); Mixed — tracks with a blend of fast and slow sections that reward all-round balance (12 circuits, 52% of the calendar).